War in Ukraine: Day 38 & 39
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the ground:
Zelensky’s address and Bucha massacre
Zelensky’s address
On 03 April, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky in his video address called out the Russian invasion as torture to the entire country and questioned whether Russia’s act counted as genocide. He said: “Indeed, this is genocide. The elimination of the whole nation and the people. We are the citizens of Ukraine. We have more than 100 nationalities. This is about the destruction and extermination of all these nationalities. We are the citizens of Ukraine and we don't want to be subdued to the policy of Russian Federation.” The key highlight of the address was how Ukrainians are being put down by Russian policy and are being exterminated. While the city of Bucha is devasted and Odesa hit with rockets, Zelensky claimed that the Ukrainian military was upping its defence in the East and South of Ukraine. He also observed that Russia had now shifted its focus from targeting Kyiv to encircling East to capture Ukraine’s military in Donbas.

Ukraine Military
On 03 April, Ukraine’s military prosecutors the investigation found close to 410 bodies in the towns surrounding Kyiv. According to prosecutors: “collect and preserve evidence of Russian aggression, maintain law and order, ensure respect for the rights of servicepersons.” Till now Russia has refused to claim on the killing of civilians in those towns.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense claimed the death of two Russian soldiers who were in the hospital of the Kharkiv region. It also reported on the hospitalisation of 500 Russian troops due to severe alcohol poisoning.

Other developments
Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk reported the death of the village head who was previously kidnapped Russians. Vereshchuk also claimed that more than 10 local community leader from Kherson, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, and Donetsk had been taken away by Russian troops. She urged on rescue of those and added: “We are informing the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), the UN, all possible organisations, just like for the other civilians who have disappeared.”

On 03 April, aide to Ukraine's interior minister confirmed on new air strikes with many rocket attacks by Russia over two port cities, Odesa and Mykolaiv. The attack in the southern ports is viewed as a trial to block Ukraine from accessing Black Sea and to create a corridor between Russia and Peninsula.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba urged the world leaders, G7 and the EU to take action against the Bucha massacre. He said: “Russians aim to eliminate as many Ukrainians as they can.”

On 03 April, Reuters, reported the complete destruction of oil refinery of Ukraine located in the Kremenchuk city, centre of Ukraine. According to the reporter: “The fire at the refinery has been extinguished but the facility has been completely destroyed and can no longer function.”

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia

Russian Ministry of Defence
Upon the repeated accusations of killings in the town of Bucha located near Kyiv, the Russian Ministry of Defence has rejected all the condemnations from the West. It countered by saying “the latest provocation and the latest fake by the Kyiv regime,” of Ukraine to accuse Russia. The same was also posted on Russia’s Telegram channel stating the killings in Bucha as fake. In the post: “The Ukrainian Armed Forces subjected the city to artillery strikes, which also could have led to civilian deaths.”
 

On 03 April, Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed that its forces had destroyed the oil facilities in the city of Odesa along with fuel storages. The attack was done using “high-precision sea and air missiles.” On the same Ukraine has not confirmed on any causalities till now, but said that the critical infrastructure was damaged.

Other developments
Russia’s negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky pointed out that it was too soon for a high-level meeting to resolve the conflict. In his Telegram he posted: “The Ukrainian side has become more realistic in its approach to issues related to the neutral and non-nuclear status of Ukraine but the draft agreement is not ready for submission to a summit meeting.”

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe  

The US
On 02 April, the US government said it would transfer Soviet-made tanks to Ukraine to boost its defense systems. On the same day, the US department of defence assured Ukraine that it would provide USD 300 million in security assistance. In addition to that, the US stated that it would also supply drones, commercial satellite imagery services and laser-guided rocket systems. 

On 03 April, US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield mentioned that the US would donate USD 50 million in aid to help Moldova. The money was in addition to the USD 30 million that was already promised for the Ukrainian refugees coming to the country

The Vatican
On 02 April, Pope Francis, on his two-day visit to Malta, mentioned that he was considering a trip to Kyiv. He further criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin and called him a "potentate," which meant an autocratic ruler. Pope Francis said: "From the east of Europe, from the land of the sunrise, the dark shadows of war have now spread. We had thought that invasions of other countries, savage street fighting and atomic threats were grim memories of a distant past." 

The UK
On 03 April, the UK's defence intelligence report stated how Mariupol was putting up a 'staunch resistance' to Russia's indiscriminate shelling. The report further mentioned how Mariupol is a critical port city for the Russians and that they wanted to secure a land corridor from Russia to Crimea.

On the same day, the UK's Prime Minister Boris Johnson condemned the discovery of bodies from towns near Kyiv after Russian forces withdrew. He said: "Russia's despicable attacks against innocent civilians in Irpin and Bucha are yet more evidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin and his army are committing war crimes in Ukraine." He also announced that the UK would step up its sanctions against Russia. 

Germany
On 03 April, Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Germany and the Western allies have agreed to implement further sanctions against Russia for its atrocities on the towns near Kyiv. He said: "Putin and his supporters will feel the consequences." He also mentioned that Germany would continue to help Ukraine with military equipment to fight against the Russians.

However, Berlin rejected Ukraine's plea for infantry vehicles. Germany's Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht rejected the demand, and cited NATO obligations. He said NATO obligations bound the armoured personnel carriers, this comes as Kyiv requested the transfer of 100 Marder infantry vehicles. Lambrecht also called on the EU to discuss a possible import ban on Russian gas deliveries. His comments came as a response to uncovering Russian atrocities near Kyiv.  

On 02 April, Scholz, in the city of Essen, called on the Russians to end the war in Ukraine quickly. He said: "territorial claims that stem from the imperialist visions of earlier centuries." He added that those territorial claims were destroying the future of Russia. He further mentioned how the implications of the war were affecting the global economy which was already strained by the COVID-19 pandemic. 

France
On 03 April, France's President Emmanuel Macron condemned Russia's atrocities in Bucha. Around 410 civilian bodies were recovered at Bucha, out of which 280 bodies were found buried in mass graves. Macron calling out Russia, said: "On the streets, hundreds of civilians cowardly murdered…must answer for these crimes." French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian mentioned: "I have received information indicating massive abuses by Russian forces in Ukrainian towns that they have been occupying these last few weeks, in particular in the area of Bucha." Le Drian further said that France would work with Ukraine to approach the International Criminal Court (ICC) to initiate a trial against the perpetrators. 

NATO
On 03 April, NATO's Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg mentioned the reports of Bucha and called it "horrific." Stoltenberg added, "…and it's absolutely unacceptable that civilians are targeted and killed, and it just underlines the importance of, that this war must end. And that is President Putin's responsibility, to stop the war." He, too, called on the ICC to open an investigation against Russia as all the facts were available. 

Greece
On 03 April, Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias visited Odesa as a part of a humanitarian mission. He arrived at the port city and met with Odessa's Mayor, Hennadiy Trukhanov. He had brought critical supplies for the city as Russia had closed roads and besieged the city. Dendias also addressed the strong ethnic Greek community in Odessa and discussed their challenges and problems. He said: "The reopening of [Greece's] consulate will help distribute humanitarian aid and set up corridors for the Greek ethnic community to leave from any areas of Ukraine, if needed, via Odessa." 

Lithuania 
On 03 April, Lithuania's film director Mantas Kvedaravicius was killed in Mariupol. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said: "We lost a creator well known in Lithuania and in the whole world who, until the very last moment, in spite of danger, worked in Russia-occupied Ukraine." Kvedaravicius was known for covering the conflict in Ukraine and Georgia. He was also known for his documentary on "Mariupolis," which was featured at the 2016 Berlin International Film Festival.

The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war
Red Cross
On 02 April, the Red Cross prepared to reach Mariupol city as the Russian forces announced to retreat from northern Ukraine. At Mariupol, an estimated 160,000 people remain with food, water, and medicines shortages. However, they said: “arrangements and conditions made it impossible to proceed.” The team was forced to turn back because of the deteriorating situation. 

Human Rights Watch 
On 03 April, Human Rights Watch said it had documented several cases of crimes against humanity by the Russian military focused in the areas of Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv. Europe and Central Asia director at Human Rights Watch Hugh Williamson said: “The cases we documented amount to unspeakable, deliberate cruelty and violence against Ukrainian civilians.” They also collected first-hand pieces of evidence by interviewing ten people. 

China
On 02 April, China clarified that it was not deliberately circumventing sanctions after the EU warned it about the same. On the contrary, the director-General of European affairs at China’s Foreign Ministry, Wang Lutong, argued that China was only contributing to the global economy by continuing its trade relations with Russia. Wang said: “We oppose sanctions, and the effects of these sanctions also risk spilling to the rest of the world, leading to wars of the currency, wars of trade and finance and also risk jeopardising the supply chain and industrial chain and globalisation and even the economic order.” 

Pakistan
On 02 April, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, General Qamar Bajwa, condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the Islamabad Security Dialogue. However, he added: “despite legitimate security concerns of Russia, its aggression against a smaller country cannot be condoned.” Pakistan has always maintained good relations with Ukraine since its independence.

Japan
On 03 April, a report by The Japan Times mentioned how the war in Ukraine was impacting 55 per cent of Japanese companies with overseas bases. The report further mentioned that “Only 34.6% of the Japanese firms surveyed said they had taken countermeasures. As for concrete steps, 54.3% of those companies cited information-gathering in a multiple-choice question, securing inventories at 32.5% and choosing suppliers at 23.5%.” 

Egypt
On 03 April, Egypt saw an unprecedented hike in steel prices due to the war in Ukraine. Three of the country’s biggest steel manufacturers announced that they had raised the prices to 17 per cent or about LE, 3,00 per ton. A disruption in the supply chain induced the price hike as Egypt depended on Russia and Ukraine for importing scarce scrap metal, iron ore, and billet. Furthermore, the increase in the dollar price in the local market has raised production costs and imports from other countries. 

India
On 03 April, The Times of India reported on how the war in Ukraine impacted India's IT sector. Ukraine is critical for offshore and near-shore third-party services. They also provide engineering and information technology expertise and thus have created issues for American and European businesses. In the case of India, Western Europe is a crucial region that has majority clients of Indian IT companies based out of Europe. 

Global Supply Chain disruptions 
On 03 April, Forbes reported the continuing war and its implications on global supply chains. Interos, a supply chain risk management company, stated how nearly 300,000 companies in the US and Europe had suppliers in Russia and Ukraine and now face continuing issues. The report further mentioned how the war had caused the most significant shift in supply chains. Interos founder and CEO Jennifer Bisceglie said: “Continued pressure on global supply chains will exacerbate imbalances between supply and demand, causing increased inflation and potentially stagflation.” 

References: 
“BBC Live,” BBC, 04 April 2022
“Russian Negotiator Says Too Early for Top Meeting on Ukraine,” The Moscow Times, 04 April 2022
“Ukraine: As its happening,” The Moscow Times, 04 April 2022
Philip Pullella, “Pope implicitly criticises Putin on invasion, considers Kyiv trip,” Reuters, 02 April 2022 
“UK says Mariupol putting up 'staunch resistance' despite 'indiscriminate strikes’,” Deutsche Welle, 03 April 2022
“UK's Johnson condemns 'despicable' killings of Ukrainian civilians,” Deutsche Welle, 03 April 2022 
“Scholz: More sanctions on Russia in coming days,” Deutsche Welle, 03 April 2022 
“Berlin rejects Ukraine's plea for infantry vehicles,” Deutsche Welle, 03 April 2022
“EU must discuss import ban on Russian gas deliveries - German defence ministry,” Reuters, 03 April 2022 
“Russia 'must answer for crimes' in Ukraine says French president,” Radio France Internationale, 03 April 2022 
Michael Schnell, “NATO chief calls Bucha executions ‘horrific’,” The Hill, 03 April 2022
“Greek Foreign Minister Arrives On Aid Mission As Ukraine's Odesa Hit By Air Strikes,” Radio Free Europe, 03 April 2022
“Lithuanian documentary maker Kvedaravicius killed in Ukraine's Mariupol,” Reuters, 03 April 2022 
“Scholz warns of global impact of war in Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 02 April 2022
“Red Cross tries to reach besieged Mariupol as Russia retreats from northern Ukraine,” The Times of Israel, 02 April 2022 
“Ukraine: Apparent War Crimes in Russia-Controlled Areas,” Human Rights Watch, 03 April 2022
Yew Lun Tian, “China says not deliberately circumventing sanctions on Russia," Reuters, 02 April 2022
“Pakistan's army chief condemns Russia, praises Ukraine's resistance,” Deutsche Welle, 02 April 2022
Kyodo, “55% of Japan firms with overseas bases feel impact of Ukraine war, poll shows,” The Japan Times, 03 April 2022 
Oliver Meier, “Back to Basics: The Nuclear Order, Arms Control, and Europe,” Arms Control Association, 02 April 2022 
Beesan Kassab, “Egypt sees unprecedented hike in steel prices as impact of war in Ukraine ripples across economy,” Madmasr, 03 April 2022 
“The impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the Indian IT sector,” The Times of India, 03 April 2022
Edward Segal, “Supply Chain Crisis Worsens As Russia’s War Against Ukraine Continues,” Forbes, 02 April 2022

IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan

HUNGARY
Parliamentary elections and referendum held simultaneously
On 03 April, parliamentary elections began in Hungary. The incumbent Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, is seeking re-election to a fourth consecutive term in what is expected to be his toughest contest. His rival Péter Márki-Zay was elected by six opposition parties to represent them all and to contest against Orban. Orban has been in conflict with the European Commission for a long time. He is criticized for having steered Hungary away from European values, radically reforming the legal system, undermining the rule of law, and implementing anti-migration policies. Along with the parliamentary elections, a referendum on legislation that restricts the teaching of homosexuality and transgender topics in schools will be also be polled. (Rahl Ssan, “Polls open in Hungarian election as Orban seeks another term,” Euronews, 03 April 2022; Rita Palfi “Hungary election: Who’s running? What are the key issues? Will Viktor Orban be waving goodbye?,” Euronews, 04 April 2022)

SERBIA
Serbian Progressive Party projected to win the second term
On 03 April, incumbent President Aleksandar Vucic of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) was projected to get re-elected for his second five-year term in the upcoming presidential elections. Vucic served as Defense Minister, Prime Minister, and President for the last ten years. After casting his vote, Vucic said: “I believe in a significant and convincing victory, and I believe everyone will get what they deserve, according to how much they worked and, understandably, in accordance with the expectations of the citizens for the future.” He further promised to keep Serbia on the path of “stability, tranquillity and peace.” (“Serbia: Vucic projected to win presidential election,” Deutsche Welle, 03 April 2022)

SWITZERLAND
Underground bunkers to be prepared for nuclear fallout
On 03 April, Switzerland is set to prepare its nuclear fallout bunkers built during the Cold war citing tensions in Ukraine. The country has promised that every person will be provided with a sheltered area if necessary. There are over nine million places throughout 365,000 private and public shelters in the country of 8.6 million residents. The large proportion of nuclear bunkers in Switzerland is used for various purposes, including military barracks and temporary housing for asylum seekers. The Swiss authorities demanded that they be emptied and converted back to nuclear bunkers within five days. (Charlotte Lam, “Nuclear bunkers for all: Switzerland is ready as international tensions mount,” Euronews, 03 April 2022)

THE UK
Activists arrested following blockade of oil terminals
On 03 April, over 80 climate change protesters were arrested by police for blocking the oil terminals against the UK’s increased oil production. Activists from the Just Stop Oil group obstructed Titan Truck Park in Grays, which held more than 100 oil tankers to serve three major oil terminals in the region. In protest, activists climbed on top of tankers at Navigator Oil Terminal in Thurrock. ExxonMobil UK, one of the country’s major privately-owned underground oil pipeline distribution networks, had to shut down three of its terminals. Assistant Chief Constable Rachel Nolan said: “This is an extremely dangerous situation for the protesters to be in. We are being clear on the risks, and are continuing to engage with them to try and bring this to a conclusion.” (“Essex Police make 83 arrests as oil terminals blocked,” BBC, 03 April 2022, “Just Stop Oil: More than 200 arrested after oil terminal protests,” BBC, 02 April 2022)